Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
